Matt Bell

For much of 2026, confidence was building that Australia's interest rate cycle had peaked. Softer-than-expected inflation results through May and June suggested price pressures were easing, with many economists expecting rates to remain on hold and potentially begin falling from mid-to-late 2027. However, July's inflation data, an economy running hotter than expected, increased global inflation pressures and a reignition of the Middle East Crisis quickly changed the conversation.

Interest Rate Rise to Slow Housing Markets, With Recovery Now Expected in Late 2026 No more waiting forMarch quarter inflation data in late April, today’s decision felt inevitableonce all the big four bank economists fell into line with financial markets inexpecting the 0.25% rate increase. Share markets and consumer confidenceholding up in the face of global instability would have helped confirm theBoard’s decision. The daily deterioration in the oil price outlook would havegiven it some...